Coimbatore: The 2019 Lok Sabha elections concluded with a major surprise for the AIADMK alliance. Coimbatore, Pollachi, Erode, Salem, Nilgiris and Namakkal - which is called the Kongu fortress of AIADMK because of unanimous victories in the last few elections has been breached and by a huge margin.
Coimbatore: The 2019 Lok Sabha elections concluded with a major surprise for the AIADMK alliance. Coimbatore, Pollachi, Erode, Salem, Nilgiris and Namakkal - which is called the Kongu fortress of AIADMK because of unanimous victories in the last few elections has been breached and by a huge margin.
The CPI(M) candidate of the DMK alliance, PR Natarajan has come out with a stellar performance considering the numbers last time in 2014 when there was a Modi wave. He secured 5,71,150 votes and won by a whopping margin of 1,70,000+ votes. This is in stark contrast to the numbers these parties polled in 2014. The DMK, Congress and Communist parties which contested separately in 2014 secured 3.1 lakh votes.
The AIADMK and BJP though they contested separately in 2014, together polled an astronomical 8.1 lakh votes. Even taking into account that KMDK and MDMK had aligned with BJP in 2014, the numbers for 2019 has clearly proved one thing - people have rejected the AIADMK alliance with BJP and have indicated that they prefer the DMK alliance and other parties like MNM (1.45 Lakh votes) and NTK (60,000 votes).
PR Natarajan, the simple, unassuming veteran fighter from the Communist party of India (Marxist) toiled really hard with the support of DMK and Communist cadres throughout the campaign. His campaign could not muster the kind of glitz and resources that was on display from the BJP camp. While the CPI (M) Campaign was more grounded and old fashioned, the BJP’s was well organised and resourceful throughout. PR Natarajan’s campaign relied on the strength of DMK and communist supporters’ individual support on social media than spending heavily to promote. Compared to BJP, CPI (M) lacked the social media force other parties had in Coimbatore. Even newly formed parties like MNM had a notable social media presence.
P.R. Natarajan relied on hard work and toiled day-in day-out in the scorching summer heat to reach to the inner corners of Coimbatore. Their lack of resources in the campaign showed up against the opposition’s campaign of glitz and blitz. Coming from the background of protectionism rather than progressiveness, he had to convince people that he would ensure development and protect the common man too.
So how did this simple, old fashioned, against-the-odds campaign notch up such a mandate from Coimbatore?
It came down to the damage caused by the demonetisation, GST and the campaign of spreading the message that BJP has deep lack of empathy and hatred towards the Tamil people and that AIADMK has been partying to the whims and fancies of BJP. The TN govt had tabled in the assembly that close to 50,000 MSMEs have been closed down in 2017-18. Though some industry associations cajoled to the poor implementation of GST by endorsing the BJP candidate, the affected people essentially saw through the tacit support and voted against them.
The fall from securing over 7.5 lakh votes (reducing an assumed number of votes due to the departure of KMDK and MDMK from BJP) between AIADMK and BJP in 2014 to the current tally of 3.97 lakh votes is something that will hurt the BJP psychologically in Coimbatore, considering the fact that was one of the seats that they were expected to win eyes-closed when the nomination was announced.
One other factor that played was that the new voters and neutral voters stayed away from BJP and voted for DMK and MNM. The tally of 1.45 lakh votes for MNM and the lesser impact of NTK and AMMK had hurt the chances of BJP big time. Adding to all of these factors have been the consolidation of minority votes across all constituencies for the DMK alliance.
Above all, a majority of the people from Coimbatore constituency were completely clueless of their sitting AIADMK MP Nagarajan who was never seen or heard of in any activity on the ground. Even, while there was a lot of hue and cry for city’s airport expansion, water supply, MSME distress and other raging issues, the MP was nowhere to be seen. His silence and his practically ‘zero’ efforts to represent the issues to the concerned officials in the aviation department irked the people especially industrialists and entrepreneurs. A simple night train to Bangalore is still a distant dream for Coimbatoreans. While Coimbatore was given step motherly treatment, it was presided over by an AIADMK MP, state minister and a BJP Central government.
C.P. Radhakrishnan, the electoral candidate of BJP is also the Chairman of Coir board. Allegations were rife that his failure to keep his promises of development in the coir industry. These and other economic factors as discussed earlier played in people having lack of trust on both the AIADMK and BJP and voting for them was futile.
Barring the failures of BJP’s campaign and their agenda over the last 5 years in TN and industrial regions like Coimbatore, the campaign of PR Natarajan and DMK Stalwarts who visited the constituency worked effectively in reaching these failures to the masses.
The western fortress of AIADMK has well and truly been breached and DMK alliance has secured a mind boggling 52% vote share in most places even after AIADMK securing 30% vote share. MK Stalin, the new DMK leader after the demise of Dravidian stalwart and his father, M Karunanidhi, has proved his mettle as a political strategist. In the Kongu region the DMK had delivered telling blows with big margin victories in Coimbatore, Nilgiris, Karur, Salem, Erode, Tirupur and Pollachi and these are the constituencies that were thought to be AIADMK bastions after the results of the last two elections.
Out of the five seats that communists won in the country, four of them have been from Tamil Nadu. And, out of which two are from Coimbatore and Tirupur, the twin industrial cities of Kongu region. And more surprisingly, after 39 years DMK has set its foot in the soil of Pollachi which was a true AIADMK bastion.
This victory of PR Natarajan and DMK alliance goes on to show simple arithmetics of alliances will not tally, if the mood of the people have not been understood. And the same is true for the massive victory of BJP across the country and in particular in the Northern and eastern states where alliance arithmetic has failed in the face of people’s aspirations.