Chinese academics recently delivered a stark warning to the country’s leaders: China is facing its most precipitous decline in population in decades, setting the stage for potential demographic, economic and even political crises in the near future.
Chinese academics recently delivered a stark warning to the country’s leaders: China is facing its most precipitous decline in population in decades, setting the stage for potential demographic, economic and even political crises in the near future.
For years China’s ruling Communist Party implemented a series of policies intended to slow the growth of the world’s most populous nation, including limiting the number of children couples could have to one. The long-term effects of those policies mean the country will soon enter an era of “negative growth,” or a contraction in the size of the total population.
A report, issued this month by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is the latest recognition that while China’s notorious “one child” policy may have achieved its original aim of slowing population growth, it has also created new challenges for the government.
A decline in the birthrate and an increase in life expectancy means there will soon be too few workers able to support an enormous and aging population, the Academy warned. The academy estimated the contraction would begin in 2027, though others believe it would come sooner or has already begun.
The government has recognized the worrisome demographic trend and in 2013 began easing enforcement of the “one child” policy in certain circumstances. It then raised the limit to two children for all families in 2016, in hopes of encouraging a baby boom. It did not work.
After a brief uptick that year, the birthrate fell again in 2017, with 17.2 million babies born compared with 17.9 in 2016. Although the number of families having a second child rose, the overall number of births continued to drop.
According to preliminary official figures cited by The Global Times, a party-run newspaper, the total number of births for 2018 could fall to as low as 15 million. Some cities and provinces have reported declines in local birthrates of as much as 35 percent.
After a brief uptick that year, the birthrate fell again in 2017, with 17.2 million babies born compared with 17.9 in 2016. Although the number of families having a second child rose, the overall number of births continued to drop.
According to preliminary official figures cited by The Global Times, a party-run newspaper, the total number of births for 2018 could fall to as low as 15 million. Some cities and provinces have reported declines in local birthrates of as much as 35 percent.
For years China’s ruling Communist Party implemented a series of policies intended to slow the growth of the world’s most populous nation, including limiting the number of children couples could have to one. The long-term effects of those policies mean the country will soon enter an era of “negative growth,” or a contraction in the size of the total population.
A report, issued this month by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is the latest recognition that while China’s notorious “one child” policy may have achieved its original aim of slowing population growth, it has also created new challenges for the government.
A decline in the birthrate and an increase in life expectancy means there will soon be too few workers able to support an enormous and aging population, the Academy warned. The academy estimated the contraction would begin in 2027, though others believe it would come sooner or has already begun.
The government has recognized the worrisome demographic trend and in 2013 began easing enforcement of the “one child” policy in certain circumstances. It then raised the limit to two children for all families in 2016, in hopes of encouraging a baby boom. It did not work.
After a brief uptick that year, the birthrate fell again in 2017, with 17.2 million babies born compared with 17.9 in 2016. Although the number of families having a second child rose, the overall number of births continued to drop.
According to preliminary official figures cited by The Global Times, a party-run newspaper, the total number of births for 2018 could fall to as low as 15 million. Some cities and provinces have reported declines in local birthrates of as much as 35 percent.
After a brief uptick that year, the birthrate fell again in 2017, with 17.2 million babies born compared with 17.9 in 2016. Although the number of families having a second child rose, the overall number of births continued to drop.
According to preliminary official figures cited by The Global Times, a party-run newspaper, the total number of births for 2018 could fall to as low as 15 million. Some cities and provinces have reported declines in local birthrates of as much as 35 percent.