We have been witness to some of the most momentous events of Indian history during the past one week. Some were “tectonic”.
I am also reminded of the famous Shakespearean expression: “fair is foul and foul is fair” in our political scenario.
Raja and Kanimozhi
The first episode was that of the acquittal of former Telecom Minister A. Raja and DMK patriarch M. Karunanidhi’s daughter and MP Kanimozhi in the 2G scam, said to be the biggest scam in Indian history.
Several legal luminaries have found the CBI judge O.P. Saini’s judgment flawed. And eminent financial writer Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar is certain that there is 80 per cent chance of the judgment being overturned by the Supreme Court.
This was once thought to be a “close and shut” case as the alleged “irregularities” were “obvious”. Of course, the Judge couldn’t see them despite the Apex Court even cancelling 122 licences issued by the Telecom Department when Mr. Raja was heading the Ministry.
Lalu Prasad Yadav
The second was the crushing blow for 69-year-old Lalu Prasad Yadav, former Chief Minister of Bihar and the chief of Rashtriya Janata Dal, when another CBI court convicted him in one more fodder scam case. He might have to face a jail sentence of 7 years. Already he is on bail after being sentenced for 4 years in another case. A few more cases are pending against him. Lalu is a very big mass leader at the national level who could marshal all the antipodes in the political spectrum and bring them together to fight his bête noire Prime Minister Narendra Modi. No other leader has such a charisma to bring about a 'mahagatbandhan'.
While Congress president Rahul Gandhi is still considered a novice, most of the Opposition leaders are either fossils or themselves on shaky ground. TMC’s Mamata Banerjee has no voice except in West Bengal. CPI-M general secretary Sitaram Yechury’s writ does not run even in his own party. All other opposition leaders like Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, M.K. Stalin, Omar Abdullah, etc., are insignificant at the national level.
TTV Dinakaran
But what is more important and interesting for the people of Tamil Nadu is the emergence of TTV Dinakaran, sidelined AIADMK (Amma) Deputy general secretary, as a charismatic mass leader.
How is that a man deemed a “don” among the “Mannargudi mafia” being suddenly praised to the skies ?
After all, all of us love only the winners. The very same person was pilloried with pitiless humour a few days ago. What a transformation !!!.
An analyst calls him “charismatic”; another says he is a “hero of sorts” and a “mass leader”. One more calls him “cool headed who is prepared to face any adversity”.
How is that his guts and gumption are extolled beyond human ? Hagiographical adjectives are pouring in. He has faced charges of corruption, the wrath of the Enforcement Directorate, raids by the Income Tax department and had even spent a few weeks in jail.
Of course, he single-handedly took on two of the biggest regional parties head-on and emerged triumphant in a historic win. Both the AIADMK and the DMK have ruled the State for several terms each for more than half a century and the AIADMK is ruling for the 8th term. Never before has an Independent won a bypoll. Also, never before has the DMK, the parent of the AIADMK, lost its deposit in an election in Chennai city since 1967. This is despite heading an alliance of 8 parties.
Electoral victory alone gives political legitimacy to any leader. There are any number of allegations regarding Dinakaran’s victory. He has been accused of “buying the voters”. But this has already been levelled against Karunanidhi’s second son M.K. Alagiri, also which was dubbed as “Thirumangalam formula”. So TN is not new to money power in elections.
While columnist S. Gurumuthy described Dinakaran's victory as “money power”, senior journalist R.K. Radhakrishnan said: “This was no free and fair poll rather a free-for-all poll in which the only rule was not to get caught.” Acting DMK president Stalin slammed it as the “defeat of the Election Commission”. But analyst Dr. Sumant Raman called him a ‘cool customer” who had emerged as a “hero of sorts” who had the guts and gumption to face the adversity with indomitable courage and faith. Still, it’s difficult to explain the margin of over 50 per cent of the 1.76 lakh votes Dinakaran secured in RK Nagar.
He defeated even the iconic “two leaves” symbol saying only a candidate determines the symbol. Ironically he is charged with trying to bribe officials of the Election Commission for the very same symbol.
As politics is nothing but the art of the possible, nobody is bothered how Dinakaran has won.
It was victory in the 1971 Assembly elections that consolidated the position of DMK president M. Karunanidhi, who came to power for the first time in February 1969, in his party and the government.
Likewise, the AIADMK’s stunning victory in the May 1973 Dindigul parliamentary by-election marked the advent of party founder, M.G. Ramachandran as a major political force. In the 1989 Assembly elections, the faction led by Jayalalithaa fared much better than the faction led by MGR’s widow Janaki MGR. It propelled her to the position of unquestioned leadership, which she held till her death in December 2016.
“The leadership question has been settled”, contends P. Palaniappan, former Minister and headquarters secretary of the Dinakaran camp. “Dinakaran has shown that he is the rightful successor to the legacy of Thalaivar (M.G. Ramachandran) and Amma (Jayalalithaa). It is, by no means, an ordinary feat that he has been able to ward off challenges of the Central and State governments and make a sweet victory.”
Dinakaran himself believes this is a referendum on the Edappadi K. Palaniswami and O. Panneerselvam (EPS-OPS)-led AIADMK government. "People standing up against the interference of some of the national parties in Tamil Nadu may be one of the factors; but the main reason behind the result is that the people want this government to lose," he asserted.
This election establishes Dinakaran firmly in the Tamil Nadu Assembly. He already claims to have the support of 18 MLAs, and "many more sleeper cell MLAs."
Is TTV's victory more of a rejection of the BJP and the EPS and OPS combine, rather than a vote for TTV himself?
Political analyst Sumanth Raman observes: "He comes across as such a cool person – so calm and composed. He has been subjected to tremendous pressure. When tax raids are being conducted across 131 places connected to his family, he was seen smiling at a gau-puja at home. People were impressed by his calm demeanour."
Raman feels Dinakaran gained a lot of sympathy after being hounded by the central agencies and it did influence the voters. Money, of course, was a factor, but the anti-incumbency was an even bigger factor.
Moreover, Tamil Nadu has been ruled by regional parties for decades - the state’s voters don't easily endorse a national party. So, when the overwhelming feeling was that there was a 'betrayal' of the Tamilian's interests by the EPS-OPS camp, the support went to TTV.
The Governor‘s virtual running of the State has definitely been felt to be the handiwork of BJP.
"I think he has the quality of being decisive and that has endeared him to the voter -- every ounce of logic said he should not contest because if he would lose badly, his career as a politician would be finished. But he took that chance, just like Jayalalithaa herself. Once a decision is taken, it is taken. He showed tremendous guts to even contest this election, as this could have ended his political career," points out Raman.
These are MLAs who are just over a year and a half old in the Tamil Nadu Assembly. They can rule till 2021. Hints of instability could well bring them closer -- after all, who wants to lose power much ahead of time when you are not sure if the Amma brand will take you through a mid-term election that may be forced upon you.
Both factions -- the merged EPS-OPS camp and the TTV camp -- are not averse to a merger and going back to the old AIADMK, where TTV had greater say in party affairs.
But the EPS-OPS combine, which has tasted power for the past few months, has refused to retreat despite the severe blow it received.
In a swift move it initiated severe action against 9 Dinakaran loyalists. While some were expelled, some were stripped of their party posts.
Some analysts see this as the beginning of a long-drawn out battle because the next Assembly election is scheduled only for 2021.
MOST IMPORTANT is how the Centre reacts to the victory of Dinakaran. The judgment of the Supreme Court in the disproportionate assets case against Jayalalithaa , which was reserved around May 2016, was delivered only after almost 8 months - in February, 2017. While this saved Jayalalithaa from the ignominy of jail as she passed away on December 5, 2016, it thwarted the ambitions of Jayalalitha’s live-in aide Sasikala Natarajan. Though she had been elected not only as the general secretary of the party but also as the Leader of the AIADMK legislature party, she could not make it to the seat of power. Had Acting Governor Vidyasagar Rao been “obliging”, she could have become the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
But SC judgment threw her into the Parappana Agraharam prison for 4 years. How is the Modi Government going to respond to the victory of Dinakaran? Of course, it might also wait because there is nothing at stake for the moment.