Northeast Monsoon Likely Around October 15–17; Coimbatore Awaits Rain

Coimbatore: The Northeast Monsoon is likely to set in over Tamil Nadu between October 15 and 17, 2026, as atmospheric conditions become favourable for the seasonal transition, raising expectations of rainfall across the state, including Coimbatore.

Tamil Nadu weather blogger Pradeep John has indicated that the monsoon could arrive around October 15, with a possible variation of one or two days. According to him, Chennai has been practically rainless since September 21, and the city, along with several other parts of Tamil Nadu, is in need of good rainfall.

Pradeep John said an upper-air circulation (UAC) is expected to move close to Tamil Nadu and help trigger the onset of the Northeast Monsoon. He clarified that the circulation does not pose a cyclone threat.

The India Meteorological Department's seasonal outlook indicates that rainfall during the 2026 Northeast Monsoon is likely to be normal overall across South Peninsular India, generally defined as 88% to 112% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Coastal and southern districts of Tamil Nadu are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while some northern interior districts could experience below-normal precipitation.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected across parts of the east coast and southern peninsula as the monsoon sets in. Isolated heavy rainfall may also occur in Tamil Nadu and neighbouring states during the transition period. However, the actual onset date and distribution of rainfall will depend on evolving atmospheric conditions and subsequent official meteorological updates.

The normal climatological onset date of the Northeast Monsoon is around October 20. The transition is expected as the Southwest Monsoon withdraws from the country and easterly winds become established over the southern peninsula. Rainfall activity could increase across parts of the east coast and South Peninsular India during the October 15–21 period.