New Delhi: The water treaty inked in 1960 could be India's trump card as it plans to ratchet up international pressure against Pakistan over the Uri terror attack.
India minced no words after Uri, saying it could put the 56-year-old treaty under review. The clamour for an abrogation is strong, with experts saying it could send a strong message to its neighbour about the position India holds over the entire river system.
Pakistan's secret weapon
Strategic analyst Brahma Chellaney says Pakistan has been using the treaty to pursue a "water war" strategy against India. "This strategy centres on repeatedly invoking the Indus Water Treaty's conflict-resolution provisions to "internationalise" any perceived disagreement so as to mount pressure on India," says Chellaney, adding that in the past, Pakistan has initiated international intervention by invoking the Treaty's conflict resolution provisions.
Advantage India
Pakistan actively pursuing its strategy could force India to act. "The Indus is Pakistan's jugular vein. If India wishes to improve Pakistan's behavior and dissuade it from exporting more terrorists, it should hold out a credible threat of dissolving the Indus Water Treaty, drawing a clear linkage between Pakistan's right to unimpeded water inflows and its responsibility not to cause harm to its upper riparian.
A failure to respect that linkage should free India, for example, to link the Chenab (which has the largest transboundary flow) with the Ravi-Beas-Sutlej system to address water scarcity in its north," says Chellaney, adding that the "water card is probably the most potent instrument India has in its arsenal - more powerful than the nuclear option".
What is this treaty all about?
The treaty gives control over the "eastern" rivers- Beas, Ravi and Sutlej- to India and the three "western" rivers- Indus, Chenab and Jhelum- to Pakistan.
Chellaney also adds that India has the option to dissolve the treaty.
Environmentalists, however, said the idea of abrogating the Treaty will not be a step in the right direction. It will damage India's credibility at the international forum and send a wrong signal to Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and China, with whom India has water sharing agreements.
The abrogation could affect these agreements. India has proposed a water sharing treaty with China, similar to the Indus Water Treaty, wherein the latter is the upper riparian state and the former the lower one. China, therefore, is at an advantageous position of the Brahmaputra. Theoretically, it can choose to withhold hydrological information and can build infrastructure to intentionally prevent water from flowing downstream. China has also been unwilling to provide details of hydropower project.
India, therefore, cannot be seen as acting in a unilateral manner. The Ministry of External also stated that the Indus Water Treaty cannot be a "one-sided affair", in the aftermath of the Uri attack.
Experts also suggest that India has other options such as making use of the western rivers to put pressure on Pakistan. Under the Treaty, India can use the water from these rivers for domestic purposes, irrigation and generating hydro-electric power.
Is there a way out?
Another method of pushing Pakistan to a corner would be to suspend the meetings of the Indus Water Commission. The purpose of the Commission will be to establish and maintain co-operative arrangements for the implementation of the Treaty, to promote cooperation between the parties to report on any problems relating to rivers, to settle issues, etc.
India can also use a third option to align itself with Afghanistan by helping it create infrastructure on the Kabul River that flows into Pakistan through the Indus basin.
India minced no words after Uri, saying it could put the 56-year-old treaty under review. The clamour for an abrogation is strong, with experts saying it could send a strong message to its neighbour about the position India holds over the entire river system.
Pakistan's secret weapon
Strategic analyst Brahma Chellaney says Pakistan has been using the treaty to pursue a "water war" strategy against India. "This strategy centres on repeatedly invoking the Indus Water Treaty's conflict-resolution provisions to "internationalise" any perceived disagreement so as to mount pressure on India," says Chellaney, adding that in the past, Pakistan has initiated international intervention by invoking the Treaty's conflict resolution provisions.
Advantage India
Pakistan actively pursuing its strategy could force India to act. "The Indus is Pakistan's jugular vein. If India wishes to improve Pakistan's behavior and dissuade it from exporting more terrorists, it should hold out a credible threat of dissolving the Indus Water Treaty, drawing a clear linkage between Pakistan's right to unimpeded water inflows and its responsibility not to cause harm to its upper riparian.
A failure to respect that linkage should free India, for example, to link the Chenab (which has the largest transboundary flow) with the Ravi-Beas-Sutlej system to address water scarcity in its north," says Chellaney, adding that the "water card is probably the most potent instrument India has in its arsenal - more powerful than the nuclear option".
What is this treaty all about?
The treaty gives control over the "eastern" rivers- Beas, Ravi and Sutlej- to India and the three "western" rivers- Indus, Chenab and Jhelum- to Pakistan.
Chellaney also adds that India has the option to dissolve the treaty.
Environmentalists, however, said the idea of abrogating the Treaty will not be a step in the right direction. It will damage India's credibility at the international forum and send a wrong signal to Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and China, with whom India has water sharing agreements.
The abrogation could affect these agreements. India has proposed a water sharing treaty with China, similar to the Indus Water Treaty, wherein the latter is the upper riparian state and the former the lower one. China, therefore, is at an advantageous position of the Brahmaputra. Theoretically, it can choose to withhold hydrological information and can build infrastructure to intentionally prevent water from flowing downstream. China has also been unwilling to provide details of hydropower project.
India, therefore, cannot be seen as acting in a unilateral manner. The Ministry of External also stated that the Indus Water Treaty cannot be a "one-sided affair", in the aftermath of the Uri attack.
Experts also suggest that India has other options such as making use of the western rivers to put pressure on Pakistan. Under the Treaty, India can use the water from these rivers for domestic purposes, irrigation and generating hydro-electric power.
Is there a way out?
Another method of pushing Pakistan to a corner would be to suspend the meetings of the Indus Water Commission. The purpose of the Commission will be to establish and maintain co-operative arrangements for the implementation of the Treaty, to promote cooperation between the parties to report on any problems relating to rivers, to settle issues, etc.
India can also use a third option to align itself with Afghanistan by helping it create infrastructure on the Kabul River that flows into Pakistan through the Indus basin.