Coimbatore: As per the USDA’s recent estimates, global cotton area and production for 2020-21 is projected at 33.4 million hectares with 152.41 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) which is marginally lower than the previous year estimates.
Coimbatore: As per the USDA’s recent estimates, global cotton area and production for 2020-21 is projected at 33.4 million hectares with 152.41 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) which is marginally lower than the previous year estimates.
India is projected to produce 36.50 million bales followed by China (33.94 million bales), United States of America (24.97 million bales), Brazil (15.37 million bales) and Pakistan (8.07 million bales) with the world total production of 152.41 million bales.
In 2019-20, India exported 4.7million bales of cotton to China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Pakistan and other countries and it imported around 1.5million bales from USA, Brazil, Egypt and other countries. Ending stocks are expected to be around 98.60 lakh bales, which is much higher than the ending stocks of previous season.
As per the reports of Ministry of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers welfare, the kharif 2020-21 cotton area is increased to 9.16 million hectares, in India as on July’2020 which is 46 per cent higher than the previous year (2019-20). Maharashtra, Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka are the major states contributed to the 96 per cent of higher acreage of cotton during this season. Reduction in consumption and decline in exports leads to highest carryover stocks for the current year. India’s cotton consumption is expected to be at 28 million bales which isreduced by 15 per cent due to the outbreak of COVID-19 for the cotton year (October’2019-September’2020). For cotton lint exports, India’s first 6 months of shipments were down nearly one-fifth from the previous year.
Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) procured nearly one third of cotton production in the country. Even though, CCI offered cotton at lower price with bulk discount, millers are not in a position to buy due to the enough carryour stock and less capacity utilization during current period. In Tamil Nadu, cotton area in the current season increased marginally when compared to previous season. The major cotton producing districts are Perambalur, Salem, Trichy, Dharmapuri, Ariyalur and Cuddalore.
According to the trade sources, millers are not keen to procure cotton as there are plenty of stocks in hand. Tamil Nadu arrivals are expected to end with August’20 and also arrivals from Mysore will commence from October’2020 onwards.But, Tamil Nadu farmers are storing cotton in anticipation of better price.
Under this circumstance, The Tamil Nadu -Irrigated Agriculture Modernization Project (TN- IAMP) funded Price Forecasting Scheme of the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 10 year historical cotton prices prevailed in Konganapuram Cooperative Marketing Society and conducted market survey to facilitate farmers to take up selling and sowing decisions.
Selling Decision
As per the results of the analysis and market survey, the farmgate price of good quality cotton during (July -September’2020) would be Rs4000-4200 per quintal. Hence, the farmers are advised to take selling decision accordingly.
Sowing Decision
If the same trend continues in the cotton value, there is less chance for procurement by the cotton mills. Price of August sowing cotton crop would be Rs.4200-4400 per quintal during harvest, if export demand starts picking up after the COVID-19 lockdown. Hence, farmers are advised to take up sowing decision accordingly
For details contact
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell,
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore – 641 003.
Phone No: 0422- 2431405
For Technical Details please contact
Professor and Head,
Department of Cotton,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore – 641 003.
Phone No: 0422-2456297