New Delhi: The government has attributed the stark change in economic growth rate during the era of the previous Congress-led administration under the backseries GDP released on Wednesday to multiple factors impacting primary, secondary and tertiary sectors.
New Delhi: The government has attributed the stark change in economic growth rate during the era of the previous Congress-led administration under the backseries GDP released on Wednesday to multiple factors impacting primary, secondary and tertiary sectors.
While the changes in growth rate of primary sector are attributed to lower growth in agriculture and mining, in the secondary sector the differences in growth rates have been attributed to changed data sources and methodologies.
For the tertiary sector, or services, it is a mix of change in methodology and change in parameters across telecom and financial services, the government said. The back-series GDP data was released jointly by Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the NITI Aayog.
Based on the back series, growth rates in primary sector fell from 5% in 2005-06 to 2% in 2011-12 against 4.6% (2005-06) and 4.4% (2011-12) based on the original series. “In both the new and old series of WPI (wholesale price index), the index for petroleum and natural gas mining used for deflating the output of the sector was lower in 2010-11than that of 2011-12,” the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (Mospi) said in a statement.
According to Mospi, growth rates in secondary sector fell from 10.2% in 2005-06 to 6.6% in 2011-12 based on the back series against 10.7% (2005-06) and 8.5% (2011-12) based on the original series.
“This can be attributed to changed data sources and methodologies,” it said, adding that the revised data of the Annual Survey of Industries was not available during preparation of 2004-05 series but was used in the computation of the back series.
Even growth rates in tertiary sector fell from 9.1% in 2005-06 to 5.9 % in 2011-12 based on the back series against 10.9% (2005-06) and 6.6% (2011-12) based on the original series. “Growth rates in unorganised trade are lower as compared to growth rates in 2004-05 where constant GTI index was used, while in the back series sales tax index and new series of WPI has been used,” Mospi said in its release.
Telecom Contribution
In the communication sector, telecom subscriber base was used in the old series as benchmark which has been changed to minutes of usage in the back series. “In the communication sector, in the old series, benchmark estimates were moved with telecom subscriber growth, where the growth was over 20%,” MoSPI said. In the case of financial services, the Reserve Bank of India’s contribution, being non-market, has been reduced, thus reflecting change in the computation of GVA.
The Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS) has recommended the methodology used for calculating the GDP back series. While the methodology for preparing back-series estimate for 2004-05 to 2010-11 is largely the same as methodology followed in the new base (2011-12), the government has admitted that in certain cases owing to limitations of the availability of data, either splicing method or ratios observed in the estimates in base year 2011-12 have been applied.
While the changes in growth rate of primary sector are attributed to lower growth in agriculture and mining, in the secondary sector the differences in growth rates have been attributed to changed data sources and methodologies.
For the tertiary sector, or services, it is a mix of change in methodology and change in parameters across telecom and financial services, the government said. The back-series GDP data was released jointly by Central Statistics Office (CSO) and the NITI Aayog.
Based on the back series, growth rates in primary sector fell from 5% in 2005-06 to 2% in 2011-12 against 4.6% (2005-06) and 4.4% (2011-12) based on the original series. “In both the new and old series of WPI (wholesale price index), the index for petroleum and natural gas mining used for deflating the output of the sector was lower in 2010-11than that of 2011-12,” the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (Mospi) said in a statement.
According to Mospi, growth rates in secondary sector fell from 10.2% in 2005-06 to 6.6% in 2011-12 based on the back series against 10.7% (2005-06) and 8.5% (2011-12) based on the original series.
“This can be attributed to changed data sources and methodologies,” it said, adding that the revised data of the Annual Survey of Industries was not available during preparation of 2004-05 series but was used in the computation of the back series.
Even growth rates in tertiary sector fell from 9.1% in 2005-06 to 5.9 % in 2011-12 based on the back series against 10.9% (2005-06) and 6.6% (2011-12) based on the original series. “Growth rates in unorganised trade are lower as compared to growth rates in 2004-05 where constant GTI index was used, while in the back series sales tax index and new series of WPI has been used,” Mospi said in its release.
Telecom Contribution
In the communication sector, telecom subscriber base was used in the old series as benchmark which has been changed to minutes of usage in the back series. “In the communication sector, in the old series, benchmark estimates were moved with telecom subscriber growth, where the growth was over 20%,” MoSPI said. In the case of financial services, the Reserve Bank of India’s contribution, being non-market, has been reduced, thus reflecting change in the computation of GVA.
The Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics (ACNAS) has recommended the methodology used for calculating the GDP back series. While the methodology for preparing back-series estimate for 2004-05 to 2010-11 is largely the same as methodology followed in the new base (2011-12), the government has admitted that in certain cases owing to limitations of the availability of data, either splicing method or ratios observed in the estimates in base year 2011-12 have been applied.